Iowa Caucus Results Explained

As anyone who watched the pundits on the cable news channels knows, the Iowa caucuses are not like other elections. The presidential nominating process is pretty complicated itself, but very few people other than pundits who have spent years analyzing them understand the Iowa caucuses. The winners of the Iowa caucuses are not decided by who comes in first but instead by a very complex mathematical formula that calculates the quantum spin of the vote, which can be pretty confusing to the layman. It has to be complicated to make it difficult for people to steal the election and more unlikely that voters will get angry and kill each other, the way they do other, less civilized countries where people understand what is going on. So in order to make the results of the Iowa caucuses a little easier for most people to understand, here are some simple explanations of who the real winners and losers were:

Republicans

1) The big winner was John McCain. McCain came in a very strong fourth with a whopping 13% of the vote, which makes him the man to beat in New Hampshire. In fact, he might have won the entire election last night. By giving up his quixotic crusades for immigrants, campaign finance reform and the Geneva Conventions, making up with the Christian Right and taking money from the people he once criticized for "swift-boating" John Kerry, McCain has proven that he is a serious candidate for President, maybe the only serious candidate.

2) Mike Huckabee was the big loser. Although evangelical Christians are his base and they make up 60% of the Republican vote in Iowa, Huckabee only got 34% of the vote. It's clear that he is a fringe candidate and the Republican party establishment doesn't have to worry about him anymore.

3) Mitt Romney came in a weak second. If he comes in a weak second in New Hampshire or even a weak first, his campaign is finished. Romney's only hope now is to change his positions on a few of the issues to appeal to more voters.

4) Rudolph Giuliani lost the nomination when he decided not to compete in Iowa or New Hampshire, which is where the nomination is decided. Even if he wins in South Carolina or Florida, it will be too late. Unless, that is, there is a terrorist attack somewhere in the world -- then all bets are off. Even a small fire that would let Giuliani walk around holding a mask to his face looking very serious could turn his prospects around.

5) Someone named "Ron Paul" got 10% of the vote but was not featured in the pie chart of the vote counts on CNN, and is not listed as a participant in the upcoming Republican debate on Fox. I'm not sure who "Ron Paul" is, but it may be a name Iowans vote for when they want "None of the Above" the way "Alan Smithee" is a name directors use when they want their names taken off a film. Or he may be some sort of joke candidate like Stephen Colbert or Pat Paulsen. If "Ron Paul" is actually a real person, his supporters need to do a better job of publicizing him.

6) Fred Thompson came in third but nobody really cares, least of all Thompson himself.

7) We haven't heard the last of Alan Keyes.

Democrats

1) The big winners were Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson. They were able to secure the cabinet posts they were running for if a Democrat wins the election by not making enemies of the front-runners. Biden and Dodd ran nearly flawless campaigns and got out before they did any damage to their future prospects. It remains to be seen if Richardson can get out before he damages himself but as long as he doesn't say very much in the next few weeks, he should be fine.

2) The other big winners were white voters and white members of the party establishment. By voting for Barack Obama, they were able to prove that they are not racist. The fact that Obama is young, charismatic, inspiring, a mesmerizing speaker, has fresh ideas and appeals across the partisan divide will make no difference in the general election where it is a well-known fact that the American people will be afraid to vote for a black man with a funny name who is inexperienced and might secretly be a Muslim. By letting him win this one, and giving us a historic moment that we can tell our grandchildren about, we can all feel better about ourselves. Of course, it would be too much of a risk to actually nominate him until sometime in the future when America is ready -- maybe in 2032 when he is only 70, a year younger than McCain is now.

3) By throwing both of his votes to Barack Obama, Dennis Kucinich guaranteed that he will win the 2008 election for congressman from the 10th district of Ohio and sets himself up for a 2012 presidential run. Well played.

4) One big loser was John Edwards. By coming in a weak, you might even say girly, second, he proved that he doesn't have the heft and gravitas necessary to be President. Voters rejected his message of economic populism in a year when voters are bored by such issues as health insurance, home mortgages, and job security and the election is going to turn instead on foreign policy and national security. The fact that he not only had the most substantive reaction to Benazir Bhutto's assassination but actually spoke to Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, or "the General" as President Bush affectionately called him when he was running for President, made no difference to voters who aren't even sure where Pakistan is. Most voters were probably thinking of the haircut. His only chance to win the nomination now would be to shave his head like Britney Spears.

5) The biggest loser of all was Hillary Clinton. If she can't win in Iowa, where can she win? In every contested race since 1972 (Bill Clinton ran unopposed in 1996), the winner of the Iowa caucuses for the Democrats has gone on to be elected President, except for 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2004 when the winner did not go on to be elected President. Iowans have an uncanny ability to predict which Democrat can win in the general election, which means Hillary's campaign may be doomed. Look for members of the party establishment to start looking for another candidate, maybe even going outside the party to someone like McCain who could win both the Republican and Democrat nominations and run on a unity ticket with Mike Bloomberg or Joe Lieberman as his vice president, sparing voters the burden of having to make a hard choice in November. David Broder and his friends are already ecstatic at the prospect.

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